SeisMath IP 2013
Intensive Programme - Mathematical Models in Seismology
8 - 19 July 2013, University of L'Aquila
SeisMath IP 2013
Welcome to the 2013 Intensive Programme (IP) in
Mathematical Models in Seismology
8 - 19 July 2013, University of L'Aquila (Italy)
Venue: University of L'Aquila (Italy)
- Alvaro Corral (Centre de Recerca Matematica, Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain),
- Armin Iske (Department of Mathematics, University of Hamburg, Germany),
- Antonino Morassi (Department of Georesources and Territory, University of Udine, Italy),
- Roberto Paolucci (Structural Engineering Department, Politecnico di Milano, Italy),
- Mircea Radulian (Scientific Director National Institute for Earth Physics, Bucharest, Romania),
- Bruno Rubino (Department of Information Engineering, Computer Science and Mathematics, University of L'Aquila, Italy)
List of Partner Institutions and Local Coordinators of the SeisMath IP 2013
University of L'Aquila (Italy) - Coordinator, Prof. Bruno Rubino
Brno University of Technology (Czech Republic), Prof. Josef Slapal
University of Hamburg (Germany), Prof. Armin Iske
National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (Greece), Prof. Nicholas Alikakos
University of Crete (Greece), Prof. Chrysoula Tsogka
Politecnico di Milano (Italy), Prof. Roberto Paolucci
University of Udine (Italy), Prof. Antonino Morassi
Tehnical University of Cluj Napoca (Romania), Prof. Petrica Pop
Autonomous University of Barcelona (Catalunia, Spain), Prof. Aureli Alabert
Middle East Technical University (Turkey), Prof. Sinan Akkar
University of Maine (France), Prof. Sohbi Sahraoui
Second University of Naples (Italy), Prof. Eugenio Lippiello
University of Naples (Italy), Prof. Aldo Zollo
Earthquakes occur nearly constantly around Europe in places like Greece, Italy, Portugal, Romania and Turkey. But earthquakes can occur almost anywhere. Italy is a well-known complex earthquake zone. In Italy there is the collision of Africa and Europe, it is highly fractured and broken up, there are a lot of micro plates moving around, which create a lot of different types of fault action.
An earthquake measuring 5.8 on the Richter scale and 6.3 in the moment magnitude scale hit L'Aquila on April 6th, 2009. There have been a large number of minor tremors since December 2008. Along with the stories of tragedy in L'Aquila, there are also stories that the earthquake was predicted, and that the predictions were ignored. Earthquake prediction remains an elusive goal of seismology. Earthquake source mechanisms are complex and involve many variables and factors. Earthquake prediction can be divided into long-, medium- and short-term phases. The short-term prediction of earthquakes has considerable allure. However, it is beset by problems. Although earthquakes are complex multi-scale phenomena, we now have much better models for earthquake nucleation and rupture processes, associated phenomena such as tsunamis, and tools with which earthquakes can be carefully studied from both deterministic and statistical points of view.
The Intensive Programme (IP) called "Mathematical Models in Seismology - SeisMath 2013" will consist of a set of short courses and seminars. Contributors will take into account methods, modelling and simulations related to above mentioned aspects of seismology. Although the need for newly developed mathematical modelling within seismology is very strong, its clear identification as an interdisciplinary research/training context at a European level is still in progress. This programme aims to provide a relevant contribution to this process by exploiting the scientific competencies of the partners. The short courses will be taught by physicians, geologists, engineers and mathematicians.The programme is addressed mainly to MSc and PhD students in Applied Mathematics, but also in Civil and Environmental Engineering and Applied Physics.
Reimbursement for DFG Priority Program 1324 participants
Reimbursement for LLP participants
Applicants from LLP partner institutions (but not from the University of L'Aquila) are eligible for a reimbursement of living and travel expenses.
This contribution is offered by the LLP Italian National Agency.
We assume to select:
- around 30 students (MSc or PhD) for the contribution for travel costs and the contribution for accommodation and subsistence costs: this corresponds to about 3 students for each partner institution.
- around 10 teachers for the contribution for travel costs and the contribution for accommodation and subsistence costs.
The contact person of each institution in the Organizing Committee is responsible for the selection of students in their universities.
Details about Reimbursement
Reservation for lodging and contribution for subsistence costs.
Please notice that students and teachers from LLP partner universities will be hosted in university premises free of charge for the whole period of the IP. Unfortunately, the Erasmus agency applies a very low daily amount for subsistence costs of students (24 euro per day, both for lodging and full board). That's why, in addition to the accommodation, we can confirm that we will only be able to offer students free access to the university canteen (open on working days). We hope we'll be able to offer some additional support to students, but we cannot guarantee anything at the moment.
Reimbursement for travel costs.
- We are allowed to reimburse travel costs only to teachers and students (MSc and PhD) who are from LLP partner institutions.
- The Erasmus Agency requires each single participant to certify they bought the cheapest flight ticket they could find. In addition, only tickets from/to the town of your home institution can be reimbursed.
- Please upload a copy of your electronic ticket as soon as possible. If you have an online check-in, please upload a pdf copy of it, as well. Otherwise, please keep the boarding pass with you and give it to us when you arrive. Without that, we will not be able to reimburse your travel expenses!
- As for the participants who need a visa, please contact the organizers at info[AT]seismath.eu to ask for a specific invitation letter. The cost of the visa will be reimbursed if the participant provides the original receipt of payment.
- For any additional tickets (or not electronic ones), when you are here, you'll have to provide us with the original one. In addition, you will be requested to provide us with the original boarding pass (if you have not uploaded the electronic one).
Criticality and Self-organization in Models of Earthquake Occurrence
Álvaro Corral (Autonomus University of Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain)
The statistics of earthquake occurrence contains very counter-intuitive results. We start by showing that the energy radiated by earthquakes follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that the expected value of the energy does not exist (is infinite), and in practice, that the mean of a finite set of data in not representative of the full population. Also, the distribution presents scale invariance, which implies that it is not possible to define a characteristic scale for the energy.
A simple model to account for this peculiar statistics is a branching process: the activation or slip of a fault segment can trigger other segments to slip, with a certain probability, and so on. Although not recognized initially by seismologists, this is a particular case of the stochastic process studied by Galton and Watson one hundred years in advance, in order to model the extinction of (prominent) families. Using the formalism of probability generating functions we will be able to derive, in an accessible way, the main properties of these models. A phase transition arises between a regime with only small earthquakes and another regime where "infite" never-ending earthquakes can develop. Remarkably, a power-law distribution of energies is only recovered in a very special case, when the branching process is at the onset of attenuation and intensification, i.e., at criticality. In order to account for this fact, we introduce the self-organized critical models, in which, by means of some feedback mechanism, the critical state becomes an attractor in the evolution of such systems.
Practical notions about how to deal with the statistics of these systems are also given. The bulk of the material presented here is self-contained, as only elementary probability and mathematics are needed to attend the lectures.
A. Corral and F. Font-Clos, arXiv:1207.2589, 2012.
A. Corral and A. Deluca, arXiv:1212.5828, 2012.